The aftermath of Operation Sindoor has exposed not only the fragilities of bilateral ties but also the deeper fault lines within South Asia’s regional order. As geopolitical currents shift, strategic mistrust between New Delhi and the current government in Dhaka threatens to reshape alliances and challenge the regional cooperation architecture. While Indian officials defended their actions as national security measures, the economic fallout has been severe, especially for Bangladesh. During Prime Minister Yunus’s March 2025 visit, China offered duty-free access to Bangladeshi goods and committed over $21 billion in infrastructure investments. But this was more than economic generosity—it signalled Beijing’s long-term strategic investment in South Asia’s reordering. With projects like the revival of the Lalmonirhat airbase and proposals for a logistics hub near the Siliguri Corridor, China is embedding itself deeper into India’s strategic periphery.

The unravelling of India–Bangladesh ties

The post-Sindoor phase of India–Bangladesh relations is emblematic of a deeper crisis in India’s neighbourhood policy. This volatility is not merely the product of external provocations, but also of internal policy drift and strategic complacency. Bangladesh, emboldened by Chinese overtures and frustrated by Indian overreach, is no longer hesitant to play hardball.

India’s current approach to the Bangladesh crisis reflects a worrying diplomatic myopia. Rather than engaging proactively, New Delhi has defaulted to muscular posturing and reactive policy. It has failed to leverage its deep historical and cultural ties with Dhaka, allowing China’s economic diplomacy and Bangladesh’s insecurity to fill the vacuum. Moreover, India has neglected regional multilateral forums like Bimstec and Saarc—potential platforms for dialogue and confidence-building. The India–Bangladesh relationship has entered one of its most volatile phases in decades, marked by mutual suspicion, provocative rhetoric, and escalating security and economic countermeasures.

India responded by restricting access for Bangladeshi garment exports to the Northeast, redirecting them through seaports and effectively paralysing land-based trade. This tit-for-tat spiral impacted trade worth $770 million and marked a decisive turn towards zero-sum diplomacy. Most importantly, India must revisit its diplomatic priorities and restore multilateralism as a cornerstone of regional stability. Without a coherent, forward-looking strategy, India risks not just alienating a key neighbour but unravelling the very regional order it seeks to uphold.

• Yunus’s reference to potentially granting China access to the Siliguri Corridor was not just a provocation; it revealed Bangladesh’s evolving geopolitical calculus.
• But this was more than economic generosity—it signalled Beijing’s long-term strategic investment in South Asia’s reordering.
• The Northeast must be integrated more robustly into the national framework—economically, politically, and psychologically—to withstand external pressures.
• Most importantly, India must revisit its diplomatic priorities and restore multilateralism as a cornerstone of regional stability.
• India responded by restricting access for Bangladeshi garment exports to the Northeast, redirecting them through seaports and effectively paralysing land-based trade.

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It must blend assertiveness with diplomacy, security with engagement, and national interest with regional interdependence. The Northeast must be integrated more robustly into the national framework—economically, politically, and psychologically—to withstand external pressures. India often approaches Bangladesh with a paternalistic mindset, expecting alignment in return for its 1971 support, while Bangladesh’s rising strategic elite views this as hegemonic.

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Yunus’s reference to potentially granting China access to the Siliguri Corridor was not just a provocation; it revealed Bangladesh’s evolving geopolitical calculus. For Dhaka, the corridor is no longer just a geographic choke point—it is a bargaining chip in its quest for strategic parity with India. Trade, once a cornerstone of India–Bangladesh cooperation, has now been weaponised. In April 2025, Bangladesh imposed sudden restrictions on Indian imports of rice, yarn, and dairy products, citing concerns over pricing and quality. It also levied new transit duties that raised the cost of Indian goods moving through its territory.

Operation Sindoor, launched by India in May 2025 as a calibrated military response to the Pahalgam terror attack, was directed squarely at Pakistan. With renewed military focus on the West Bengal–Bangladesh border, India conducted the high-profile Teesta Prahar exercise in the riverine terrain of West Bengal. Visit the Cashier’s Desk at the casino to redeem the Special Gaming Offer attached to your package. Those quick to mock Delhi’s choices forget that many of the very figures they now revere—be it Matangini Hazra, Surya Sen, or Khudiram Bose—were once branded as insurgents or dacoits. As Dhaka courts dragons and entertains the imperial fantasies of retired generals, it would do well to remember who lit the torch of 1971—and who kept the darkness at bay. Our extensive drinks menu includes cocktail, beer, wine, whisky, vodka, rum and exquisite single malts.

This disconnect leads to strategic misrecognition, where intentions are misread and cooperation is mistaken for dominance. Unless both sides shift from hierarchical diplomacy to reciprocal, interest-based engagement, mutual mistrust will persist beyond the reach of deterrence or economic tools. gugo-bet India’s northeastern states—long marginalised economically and politically—have now become central to the region’s geopolitical rivalry.